Will Medicare eat my raise? The hold-harmless rule
For most people, a Medicare premium increase can never make their Social Security deposit smaller than the year before. That protection is called the hold-harmless rule. It can keep your deposit flat, but it can’t give you a raise.
The short version
- If your Part B premium comes out of your Social Security, your premium can go up by no more than the dollar amount of your COLA raise.
- So your deposit stays the same or goes up. It doesn’t go down because of Part B.
- It doesn’t cover people who pay income-related premiums (IRMAA), people new to Medicare, or people who don’t have the premium taken from Social Security.
Who is protected
You’re generally covered if all of these are true:
- You get Social Security benefits, and your Part B premium was taken out of them for November and December 2026.
- It’s still being taken out in January 2027.
- You pay the standard premium, not an income-related amount.
The rule comes from section 1839(f) of the Social Security Act. About 70% of people with Medicare have their premium taken from Social Security (medicareresources.org).
Who is not protected
- Income-related premium payers (IRMAA). Your full premium increase comes out, even if it’s bigger than your raise. IRMAA explained.
- New Medicare enrollees in 2027, and people whose premium wasn’t taken from Social Security in November and December.
- People whose state pays their premium through Medicaid or a Medicare Savings Program. You don’t need the protection: the state pays the increase, and you keep your whole raise.
- People who pay Medicare directly, for example because they haven’t started Social Security yet.
How it works, with numbers
Here is the rule in practice with the current figures: a 3.6% COLA (3.6% Official) and a standard premium going from $202.90 to $209.50 ($209.50 Projection), a change of +$6.60.
| December 2026 | January 2027 | |
|---|---|---|
| Benefit before deductions | $150.00 | $155.00 |
| Part B premium taken out | −$202.90 | −$207.90 hold harmless |
| Deposit | −$52.90 | −$52.90 |
With a $150 benefit, the raise is smaller than the premium increase. The premium goes up only as much as the raise, so the deposit doesn’t change. This happens most often to people with a small Social Security benefit, such as a spousal benefit or a benefit reduced by a pension offset.
| December 2026 | January 2027 | |
|---|---|---|
| Benefit before deductions | $1,500.00 | $1,554.00 |
| Part B premium taken out | −$202.90 | −$209.50 |
| Deposit | $1,297.10 | $1,344.50 |
Here the raise is bigger than the premium increase, so the rule never comes into play. That’s the situation for most people this year.
Years when it mattered
Hold harmless matters most when the COLA is low and the premium jumps. In 2016 there was no COLA, so protected people paid the previous year’s premium while others paid far more. In 2022 the COLA was large and only about 1.5% of people needed the protection (medicareresources.org).
Check your own case
The calculator applies the rule automatically when you say your premium is taken from Social Security and your income is under the IRMAA limits. Your COLA notice from SSA will show the premium that actually applies to you.
Figures last checked against official sources: